The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

[Good Times]

I've been reading up on this and watching how everything has been unfolding and it's a sad reality to see this happen. It's been written on the wall even before it began but it was definitely great to see them go through with the concept.

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.autobloggreen.com/media/2008/04/golftdihybrid---02-450.jpg

Yeah I know it's not a Toyota but it does send a deep message across all other manufacturers. VW made a concept Golf that combines a 1.2L diesel and a hybrid electric drive matted with a 7 speed DSG transmission which yields a really thrifty performance. Unfortunately even with the 69mpg stat the cost to manufacture this vehicle outweighs the reality of the price point it should sell at.


Volkswagen’s Dr. Jens Hadler, executive director of powertrain development, said that stop-start devices—a very mild form of hybridization which shuts down a gas engine when the vehicle comes to a stop—can give clear savings, but a car with a full hybrid system, like the Toyota Prius, is too costly. He estimated that while stop-start systems could save 3 to 5% of CO2 emissions, a full hybrid like the Prius would save five times the fuel, but at 18 times the cost. Hadler sees this cost coming down with successive generations of hybrids, but not enough to make hybrids worthwhile in the future. This stance leaves little hope that Volkswagen will put its 70-mpg diesel-electric full hybrid Golf concept into production.

Franz Fehrenbach, CEO of Bosch, said that diesel hybrids, like the Golf concept, make even less sense than gasoline hybrids. According to Fehrenbach’s calculations, a gasoline full hybrid adds €2,000 to the cost of a car, but delivers only €1,500 in fuel savings over the first three years of the life of a vehicle. That’s a €500 loss over three years. The hole gets bigger with a diesel full hybrid, which adds €3,500 in cost but delivers €2,500 in savings, according to Fehrenbach.

So I guess this means no diesel hybrid in the near future. I wonder how this will change with the CAFE standard now being proposed at 31.6mpg by 2015?

Source: Hybrid Cars (http://www.hybridcars.com)

[YotaFun]

I just read an article today on the new CAFE standards.

They need to find a cheaper way and still make this an available option to customers.
Maybe the demand for the car will help make up for the cost and such?

[paddlenbike]

As this and many other articles point out, it generally takes a little over four years before you start to get a return on your hybrid investment. Shortly thereafter, the batteries begin to lose their capacity and the effective fuel economy steadily drops until you replace them at a pretty significant cost. The cycle starts all over again. Until either the battery technology improves or economies of scale bring down the additional cost of hybrid systems, they do not necessarily translate to saving money. I sure appreciate the improved air quality though, and the break-even point will probably happen sooner as technology catches up.
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http://home.off-road.com/~kemanuel/forum/dilbert-suv.gif

[Bob98SR5]

hey ken,

whats your CARB friends say about future CA diesel testing?

bob

[dontdo_that]

Damn, 70 mpg.. that would be pretty sweet.. DSG dual-clutch is way ahead of Mercedes Speedshift and BMW SMG too IMO. But yeah, if I had to fork out 50 grand for this car, I think I would have to settle for an M3..

[paddlenbike]

hey ken,

whats your CARB friends say about future CA diesel testing?

bob


I hate to bring the poop to the party, but here it is: Assembly Bill 1488. (http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/07-08/bill/asm/ab_1451-1500/ab_1488_cfa_20070912_145650_asm_floor.html)

SUMMARY : Includes diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after
the 1997 model-year and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross
vehicle weight rating of less than 8,501 pounds
into the biennial smog check program, starting January 1, 2010.

The Senate amendments are significant and delete the requirement
of a pilot testing program as a prelude to including
diesel-powered vehicles into the biennial smog check program.
Instead, the bill directs that, starting January 1, 2010,
diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after the 1997 model-year
and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating
of less than 8,501 pounds be integrated by the Bureau of
Automotive Repairs (BAR) into the biennial smog check program.
Authorizes diesel-powered vehicle smog check testing to include
on-board diagnostic testing.


And what's next:
http://www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/diesel.htm

[elripster]

The diesel hybrid might not make financial sense yet, but that's true of many of the hybrids. Now according to the EPRI report Prius owners would start saving dough when gas topped $2.50/gal. Well, that happened quite a while ago but after the report was put out. fuel was in the $2 when the report was released.

As fuel prices climb, these more exotic technologies will gain traction. Heck, lots of people buy hybrids because they just plain want to buy less gas. They have probably never done the calcs and probably never will.

One thing we have to remember about VW's (and all car maker's) propaganda machines is that VW is banking on selling diesel technology that gets fuel economy similar to a Prius but at less of a cost starting in 2010. So, they probably aren't going to steel their own thunder right off the bat.

Frank

[BruceTS]

If things get really bad, I'll convert my 4Runner into a true Hybrid.....

[Bob98SR5]

I hate to bring the poop to the party, but here it is: Assembly Bill 1488. (http://info.sen.ca.gov/pub/07-08/bill/asm/ab_1451-1500/ab_1488_cfa_20070912_145650_asm_floor.html)

SUMMARY : Includes diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after
the 1997 model-year and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross
vehicle weight rating of less than 8,501 pounds
into the biennial smog check program, starting January 1, 2010.

The Senate amendments are significant and delete the requirement
of a pilot testing program as a prelude to including
diesel-powered vehicles into the biennial smog check program.
Instead, the bill directs that, starting January 1, 2010,
diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after the 1997 model-year
and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating
of less than 8,501 pounds be integrated by the Bureau of
Automotive Repairs (BAR) into the biennial smog check program.
Authorizes diesel-powered vehicle smog check testing to include
on-board diagnostic testing.


And what's next:
http://www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/diesel.htm



grammar check me here: are they saying that if the vehicle meets both conditions, then you need to get tested? or are they saying that pre-97 vehicles are exempt?

[paddlenbike]

Pre-97s are exempt.

[Bob98SR5]

http://www.xsltblog.com/archives/The-Simpsons-Mr-Burns-Excel.jpg

thanks, ken. my reading comprehension is not what it used to be :confused:

[paddlenbike]

Bumping an old thread. Just read an article I found interesting: "Why are there no diesel hybrid cars?" (http://www.torquenews.com/1083/why-are-there-no-diesel-hybrid-cars) It's a good read, but I found one thing of particular interest--"Diesel fuel in America is currently much worse than gasoline in terms of miles per gallon of crude. That is because l like it or not, the US refineries create much more gasoline from a gallon of crude than diesel. The EIA says it is 11 gallons of diesel and 19 gallons of gasoline per barrel. Since we are already a net importer of liquid crude, why import more just to switch to diesel?" That is the first good explanation I have ever seen for why diesel costs more than gasoline.

Another source for the production of gasoline vs diesel per gallon of crude:
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_refining

[YotaFun]

Hmm interesting, that does help explain the cost of diesel.
I always thought it was the cost of production, but then at the same time that didn't make too much sense to me since I was under the impression diesel was still cheaper to refine then gasoline?

I would really still love to see more diesels here in the US.
I hear Mazda is currently working on a motor that's a perfect blend of performance and economy with out having to introduce the new Urea injection, that has pretty much killed the diesel MPG that older diesels get. I have been looking to pick up an older diesel truck, but it is insane how the price of older diesel has sky rocketed, my neighbor has an 2000 F250 4 door short bed 4wd diesel and was offered 11k, mind you the truck has 260K miles on it!

[Seanz0rz]

I don't fully buy that explanation though, especially in countries where diesel is more common, like most of Europe.

Diesel's downfall is the narrow power band. This means lots of shifting. What it does have going for it is low end torque. Coupling a diesel to a hybrid drivetrain, I think, would keep that diesel in it's sweet spot and provide more torque to drive an electric motor. Especially in a series hybrid configuration. This is why they use it on locomotives.

I do like diesel cars, but hearing a New Beetle that sounds like a 50 year old John Deere tractor just puts me off.