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Thread: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

  1. #1

    The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    I've been reading up on this and watching how everything has been unfolding and it's a sad reality to see this happen. It's been written on the wall even before it began but it was definitely great to see them go through with the concept.



    Yeah I know it's not a Toyota but it does send a deep message across all other manufacturers. VW made a concept Golf that combines a 1.2L diesel and a hybrid electric drive matted with a 7 speed DSG transmission which yields a really thrifty performance. Unfortunately even with the 69mpg stat the cost to manufacture this vehicle outweighs the reality of the price point it should sell at.

    Volkswagen’s Dr. Jens Hadler, executive director of powertrain development, said that stop-start devices—a very mild form of hybridization which shuts down a gas engine when the vehicle comes to a stop—can give clear savings, but a car with a full hybrid system, like the Toyota Prius, is too costly. He estimated that while stop-start systems could save 3 to 5% of CO2 emissions, a full hybrid like the Prius would save five times the fuel, but at 18 times the cost. Hadler sees this cost coming down with successive generations of hybrids, but not enough to make hybrids worthwhile in the future. This stance leaves little hope that Volkswagen will put its 70-mpg diesel-electric full hybrid Golf concept into production.

    Franz Fehrenbach, CEO of Bosch, said that diesel hybrids, like the Golf concept, make even less sense than gasoline hybrids. According to Fehrenbach’s calculations, a gasoline full hybrid adds €2,000 to the cost of a car, but delivers only €1,500 in fuel savings over the first three years of the life of a vehicle. That’s a €500 loss over three years. The hole gets bigger with a diesel full hybrid, which adds €3,500 in cost but delivers €2,500 in savings, according to Fehrenbach.
    So I guess this means no diesel hybrid in the near future. I wonder how this will change with the CAFE standard now being proposed at 31.6mpg by 2015?

    Source: Hybrid Cars
    Lance
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  2. #2

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    I just read an article today on the new CAFE standards.

    They need to find a cheaper way and still make this an available option to customers.
    Maybe the demand for the car will help make up for the cost and such?

  3. #3

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    As this and many other articles point out, it generally takes a little over four years before you start to get a return on your hybrid investment. Shortly thereafter, the batteries begin to lose their capacity and the effective fuel economy steadily drops until you replace them at a pretty significant cost. The cycle starts all over again. Until either the battery technology improves or economies of scale bring down the additional cost of hybrid systems, they do not necessarily translate to saving money. I sure appreciate the improved air quality though, and the break-even point will probably happen sooner as technology catches up.
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  4. #4

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    hey ken,

    whats your CARB friends say about future CA diesel testing?

    bob

  5. #5

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    Damn, 70 mpg.. that would be pretty sweet.. DSG dual-clutch is way ahead of Mercedes Speedshift and BMW SMG too IMO. But yeah, if I had to fork out 50 grand for this car, I think I would have to settle for an M3..
    -Ned<br /><br />1997 4Runner 4x4 3.4L V6 Black<br />OME/TRD Lift | 265 Pro comp MT | AR Bajas 16x8, Kenwood Excelon KDCx789 | Polk DB650 speakers | WabFab Discos | Other stuff<br />

  6. #6

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob_98SR5
    hey ken,

    whats your CARB friends say about future CA diesel testing?

    bob
    I hate to bring the poop to the party, but here it is: Assembly Bill 1488.

    SUMMARY : Includes diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after
    the 1997 model-year and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross
    vehicle weight rating of less than 8,501 pounds
    into the biennial smog check program, starting January 1, 2010.

    The Senate amendments are significant and delete the requirement
    of a pilot testing program as a prelude to including
    diesel-powered vehicles into the biennial smog check program.
    Instead, the bill directs that, starting January 1, 2010,
    diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after the 1997 model-year
    and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating
    of less than 8,501 pounds be integrated by the Bureau of
    Automotive Repairs (BAR) into the biennial smog check program.
    Authorizes diesel-powered vehicle smog check testing to include
    on-board diagnostic testing.



    And what's next:
    http://www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/diesel.htm


  7. #7

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    The diesel hybrid might not make financial sense yet, but that's true of many of the hybrids. Now according to the EPRI report Prius owners would start saving dough when gas topped $2.50/gal. Well, that happened quite a while ago but after the report was put out. fuel was in the $2 when the report was released.

    As fuel prices climb, these more exotic technologies will gain traction. Heck, lots of people buy hybrids because they just plain want to buy less gas. They have probably never done the calcs and probably never will.

    One thing we have to remember about VW's (and all car maker's) propaganda machines is that VW is banking on selling diesel technology that gets fuel economy similar to a Prius but at less of a cost starting in 2010. So, they probably aren't going to steel their own thunder right off the bat.

    Frank
    1985 FJ-60, 3FE, Hell Creek lift, 2009 H3 sold

  8. #8

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    If things get really bad, I'll convert my 4Runner into a true Hybrid.....
    99 SR5 4Runner Highlander 5spd V6 4WD e-locker<br />Myspace<br />3rd Gen Bumper Build-up<br />1GR-FE 4.0L V-6 &amp; RA60F 6-speed for my project vehicle<br /><br /><br />Don&#039;t Ask when I&#039;m gonna go SAS, I&#039;m not... I&#039;ll build a buggy first!

  9. #9

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    Quote Originally Posted by paddlenbike
    I hate to bring the poop to the party, but here it is: Assembly Bill 1488.

    SUMMARY : Includes diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after
    the 1997 model-year and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross
    vehicle weight rating of less than 8,501 pounds
    into the biennial smog check program, starting January 1, 2010.

    The Senate amendments are significant and delete the requirement
    of a pilot testing program as a prelude to including
    diesel-powered vehicles into the biennial smog check program.
    Instead, the bill directs that, starting January 1, 2010,
    diesel-powered vehicles manufactured after the 1997 model-year
    and diesel-powered vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating
    of less than 8,501 pounds be integrated by the Bureau of
    Automotive Repairs (BAR) into the biennial smog check program.
    Authorizes diesel-powered vehicle smog check testing to include
    on-board diagnostic testing.



    And what's next:
    http://www.arb.ca.gov/diesel/diesel.htm
    grammar check me here: are they saying that if the vehicle meets both conditions, then you need to get tested? or are they saying that pre-97 vehicles are exempt?

  10. #10

    Re: The death to the diesel hybrid even before production

    Pre-97s are exempt.

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